Following the NHL’s Board of Governors meetings on Tuesday in Seattle, commissioner Gary Bettman said the NHL is projecting the salary cap to rise to $87.7 million for next season.
That would be a bump of $4.2 million, the largest in six seasons.
“I think most people will see it as good news,” Bettman told reporters after the meetings.
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Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon is certainly among those people. He and the rest of the Vegas front office no doubt would be delighted with an extra $4.2 million to spend this upcoming offseason, with six key players set to hit unrestricted free agency.
The news isn’t surprising. Before the season began McCrimmon said, “We are hopeful with a bump in the salary cap that we’ll be able to keep this core together. We like our team a lot.”
The salary cap ceiling has increased only $2 million combined over the last four years due to the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
| Season | Salary Cap |
|---|---|
2019-20 | $81.5 million |
2020-21 | $81.5 million |
2021-22 | $81.5 million |
2022-23 | $82.5 million |
2023-24 | $83.5 million |
2024-25 (projected) | $87.7 million |
That crunch has impacted teams across the league, including Vegas. According to Cap Friendly there are 16 teams (half the league) with a total cap hit above the $83.5 million ceiling for this season, utilizing LTIR relief to stay compliant.
The Golden Knights entered this past offseason with very few pending UFAs and were able to keep their Cup-winning roster nearly intact, losing only winger Reilly Smith in a cap-shedding trade with Pittsburgh. Next summer could look very different, with six players in the regular lineup set to hit free agency. The contracts for Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Alec Martinez, William Carrier, Michael Amadio and Ben Hutton all expire at the end of this season.
How might the projected salary cap bump impact Vegas’ ability to retain some or all of them? Let’s dig into the numbers.
As of now, Vegas has 15 players under contract for the 2024-25 season with a combined cap hit of $65.036 million according to Cap Friendly. That is not including goaltender Robin Lehner, who hasn’t played since April 2022 and who remains on LTIR. If he were to return, Vegas would have 16 players with a combined cap hit of approximately $70 million. For the sake of this conversation, and the math involved, let’s rule out Lehner and his $5 million cap hit for now.
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The NHL’s current projection would leave the Golden Knights with approximately $22.66 million to fill out the roster. That could be anywhere between five and eight players, depending on whether Vegas wants to use the full 23-man roster or go with fewer players to save cap space.
Rookies Kaedan Korczak and Pavel Dorofeyev will both be restricted free agents, and (barring a massive rise in production and role over the rest of this season) should be in line for minimal raises. That leaves close to $20 million remaining.
The sum of the current cap hits for Marchessault, Stephenson, Martinez, Carrier, Amadio and Hutton is approximately $16 million. That suggests it’s within the realm of possibility to retain them all, but that number can obviously change with their next contracts.
Stephenson has drastically out-performed his current $2.75 million cap hit. Since being traded to Vegas in December 2019, Stephenson has racked up 61 goals and 137 assists in 275 games. His 198 points over that period rank 79th in the NHL, and second for the Golden Knights. Meanwhile, his cap hit is tied for the 363rd highest league wide, and the 12th-highest in Vegas.
Stephenson hasn’t produced at that rate so far this season, with only two goals and 10 assists through 23 games. Even with the current slump, his resume as a top-two center over the last three seasons seems impressive enough to guarantee he’ll get a significant raise.
To juxtapose that, Martinez should be in line for a sizable decrease in cap hit. The 36-year-old is still a key cog for the Golden Knights, but at his age he won’t be signing a deal worth close to his current cap hit of $5.25 million. With young defensemen such as Korczak and Brayden Pachal developing, it’s also possible Vegas could opt to move on.
Marchessault may be the most interesting case of this class of Vegas UFAs. On one hand, he’s coming off a brilliant season in which he led the league with 13 playoff goals on his way to winning the Conn Smythe Trophy. He’s topped 20 goals in every full season of his NHL career, and has averaged 30 goals per 82 games over the last seven years.
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On the other hand, he’ll turn 33 this month and may be willing to take less to stay in Vegas. There may not be another player more ingrained in the fabric of the Golden Knights organization over the last seven years than Marchessault. He’s the franchise leader in games played, goals and assists.
Nearly every player in the NHL claims their current residence as “home” and says they hope to stay, but there’s an undeniable authenticity and emotional attachment when Marchessault talks about Las Vegas. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to take a bit of a hometown discount in exchange for trade protection to finish his career as a Golden Knight.
It will be interesting to see what comes of the negotiations with Carrier as well. He’s coming off an incredible year in 2022-23 in which he shattered career-highs in nearly every offensive metric. His 16 goals nearly doubled his previous best. However, this year he’s returned to a pace much closer to his career averages, with only three goals and an assist to this point.
Carrier’s value obviously goes far beyond his offensive output. He’s been the anchor of the fourth line since the first season in team history. While the centers and right wings have changed over the years, Carrier has maintained that line’s identity throughout. While there’s some risk in signing a 29-year-old who plays a violent brand of hockey, Vegas would certainly like to have him back.
Hutton and Amadio have both played their roles well in Vegas, but will obviously command smaller salaries than those mentioned above.
So, back to the question, “What does the expected salary cap bump to $87.7 million mean for the Golden Knights?” It means they have more room to operate than they’ve had in quite some time, and they have options.
It appears Vegas will have space to bring back all of its key pieces if it chooses to do so. Even if Stephenson and Marchessault combine to account for $12 million to $13 million (a generous estimation), it would still leave the Golden Knights with between $7 million and $8 million to sign Martinez, Carrier, Amadio and Hutton. That may be tight, but it feels doable.
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Vegas will also have the money to dive into the free-agent market if it chooses to go that direction. The way the rest of this season plays out will obviously play a big factor in that decision.
Either way, Bettman’s projection from the Board of Governors meeting was music to the Golden Knights’ ears.
(Photo of Jack Eichel and Golden Knights teammates: Keith Gillett / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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